The Recovery to Death Ratio, and the Hope of a partial lifting of the ECQ

Since March, I have been crowing about the success of the quarantine as a State led effort to mitigate the SARS -COVID2 epidemic. For this, I have been using the geometric average of the daily growth rates of cases, because that was the most available, and growth of the number of cases tended to show clearly whether the disease was on a massacre rampage, or that we were turning the tide, and "flattening the curve". See the blog post dated March 30, 2020 (We are Winning! Part 2)

I had an intense interest in the curve because I really wanted a partial lifting of the quarantine, or at least a modification of the extended community quarantine, or ECQ, which for all practical purposes of confining the citizenry to their homes, was like a martial regime imposed control: curfew from 8 pm to 5 am of the next day, no movement outside of the house, and ONLY for the one authorized to shop essential supplies, nobody.  And, of course, that this movement to the store was only on certain days of the week, and hours. whew.

So, I had shown, convincingly, I thought, that the curve was gradually but continually declining, and therefore flattening. And let me just say at this moment, that the instantaneous instance of the curve, which is at most, a day to day growth, also implies the doubling rate. There is magical numerator by which you divide by the rate of growth, and voila, you get the approximate doubling time of growth.

I reinforced this by almost daily posting on my pages Project/Thesis Statistician, and Home Office, plus in my timeline, that hope that the ECQ would at least be modified, such as, allowing people to go to work on vital industries, by implication, some modes of transportation would be allowed, and so on, to achieve some semblance of dynamic life I so miss seeing in the great city, or Metropolitan Manila, to name her.  NO DICE, the  ECQ was further extended (for the 2nd time, I add) until May 15.  I thought then, and I do now, that I am slowly but surely, going insane...

Now after more than a month of daily tracking, a better indicator is available and feasible, since this really requires an empirical trend, and unlike a sampling of the cases trend, may not be a small set of numbers, but truly historical.  After all, we are talking here of life and death, or as indicated by their measurements, recovery or death, that is.  That is beyond, WAY BEYOND,  the blue university's scandalous choice of BUHAY o DIGNIDAD.

Now, here as is plain to see, an affirmation of the my claim in a previous blog that WE ARE WINNING!

This is the recovery to death ratio curve. And as elementary as can be, the curve going up means that more cases are surviving the disease, in other words, LIVING rather than dying.

And also a little idiosyncratic to the chart, and no more complicated than any division a kid can do, is that the ratio of 1 means that life is equal in strength to death (death, where is thy sting, saith the bard).  Thus, a ratio that is any greater means that life is STRONGER than death, or that more cases are surviving and defeating the plague of SARS-COVID2.

The break-even point, or the equilibrium point, as my old teacher in Economics would say is somewhere in the hours between April 14 and April 15, the day COVID2 died and continues to die.  That would be the number of recoveries equal the number dying.

So you can see, with as much glee as I, I hope, that the curve continues to rise beyond the equilibrium point, and that therefore, recoveries are going ahead of deaths in the "paramihan" contest.

Di ba, this would have been good to show the President. O sir, look! you can RELAX the ECQ a bit.