How to Decide Sanely When Bombarded with Advertising
There's this toothpaste ad which claims that you can't distinguish it from the leading brand. Translated into a quantitative statement, the greater the percent of those who cannot distinguish the new brand from the leading brand, the better for the new brand. At presumably cheaper price, its similar taste and effect make it preferable to buy instead (of the leading brand). Statistically, the null hypothesis is that there is no difference between the taste and effect of the new brand from the leading brand. Using a “taste” test, the probability of distinguishing the new brand from the leading brand should be nil; that is, the new brand should be perceived as tasting the same with the leading brand despite its cheaper price. A “great” probability of perceiving the difference means that there is indeed a difference between the brands, or in other words, that the new brand is truly different and not at all comparable with the leading brand. The test proceeds by using the time hono