A View of Survey Results: the 2016 Philippine Elections



Assuming the survey responses were gathered appropriately (methodologically compliant), then the estimates of prevalence can be interpreted meaningfully in terms of an electoral race, provided the percent standard error is considered.

Bobbi tiglao also posits that another crucial parameter needs to be estimated and included in the calculation of voting preference: that of machinery generated votes, which should be added to the survey responses.

Now since the two quantities are additive, we can analyze the survey preferences before or after the machinery generated votes are included, and the results will be the same. It is more intuitive, though, to consider it at the end when the quantities are compounded into a single measure.

Let us now go to the final estimates (survey responses plus machinery generated).


Source: Tiglao, see FB posts

If we use the SWS declared standard error */- 6 percent, then the following conclusions are warranted:

1. there is seemingly a bimodal distribution, top position or rank, and bottom position or rank.

2. with standard errors, a range of values, called confidence intervals [let's call it for now flux intervals], can be calculated to show how either the survey measures of voting preference, or the compounded preference with machinery delivered votes will fluctuate up and down.

3. within the flux intervals, the candidates with highest “top” votes are “statistically” tied; the same goes for the candidates with lowest “bottom” votes, to wit:

The upper tail of Poe's 32 percent plus the 6 percent of standard error equals 38 percent, which well includes Binay's 34 percent. The lower tail of Poe (32 percent minus 6 percent of standard error) will include the two “bottom” candidates Duterte and Roxas

So, what's the bottom line? The actual results are still a toss up. Until later updated with attending changes, we now have Poe and Binay leading; both Duterte and Roxas are at their very heels.

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