On the time series of the net satisfaction ratings of the Vice-President from the SWS

As time series , we can describe the trend as declining, that is, the people are getting progressively dissatisfied with the Vice-President (the sampling methodology is explained elsewhere by Dr. Mangahas, so I speak here of “the people” as if the entire population is being asked). The start of the time series was on December 2013, and the terminal point here is September 2015, and goes from 62 percent to 33 percent.

It can be argued that the time series is not yet finished and that the trend may be reversed.

Therefore an alternative would be to give a two time average, a sort of simplified moving average by dividing the time series into two 1 year blocks: from December 2013 to September 2014 as first block; and then from December 2014 to September 2015 as second block; and if the time series continues, to give an annualized comparison.

2014	2015
62	44
73	31
67	42
52	33

Source: SWS current extraction


The averages are the following:

for 2014 (including December 2013 as start): Arithmetic mean = 63.5; Geometric mean=63.016;

for 2015 (including December 2014 as start): Arithmetic mean = 37.5; Geometric mean=37.08.

Since a time series is not implied, but only a group of ratings, it is safe to say that the second year group of ratings for the Vice-President (2015), the people are more dissatisfied with him this year compared to the previous one (2014).

Note: since the ratings are not sample values (there is no greater number of values to sample from) but parameters, there is no need to test for significance. The ratings can be inspected directly and it can be concluded that based on the SWS data, the people are indeed have become more dissatisfied with the Vice-President.