The Recovery to Death Ratio, and the Hope of a partial lifting of the ECQ
Since March, I have been crowing about the success of the quarantine as a State led effort to mitigate the SARS -COVID2 epidemic. For this, I have been using the geometric average of the daily growth rates of cases, because that was the most available, and growth of the number of cases tended to show clearly whether the disease was on a massacre rampage, or that we were turning the tide, and "flattening the curve". See the blog post dated March 30, 2020 (We are Winning! Part 2) I had an intense interest in the curve because I really wanted a partial lifting of the quarantine, or at least a modification of the extended community quarantine, or ECQ, which for all practical purposes of confining the citizenry to their homes, was like a martial regime imposed control: curfew from 8 pm to 5 am of the next day, no movement outside of the house, and ONLY for the one authorized to shop essential supplies, nobody. And, of course, that this movement to the store was only on certa
